Finding a Method that Best Works for You
In addition to the standard practice of analysing trend line breaks, there are dozens of methods used in the technical analysis of stock and financial market fluctuations. Why are there so many? Well, the short answer could be that, although there is merit in most of them under certain conditions, none of them work consistently enough to stand out from the rest. You could spend the rest of your life studying analytical methods and still be not much better than the next person when the crunch comes. We have to look beyond these methods for a more unifying concept. To me, astrology is one of the best places to start, since every possible thing on Earth that has a beginning and an ending is subjected to the influences of the movements of the planets.
Although the most common method of plotting Moving Averages is used by many analysts, they are largely historically-based (usually 20,30,50 or 200 days in the past) and will not help you much to predict sudden reversals, which is where the big money is made and lost. A moving average is graphically depicted by plotting the average price of a security over a given time period. For example, in a 20-day moving average, you draw a line reflecting the security's average price over the past 20 days. For the following day, you simply ignore the oldest value and take the newest into consideration when re-calculating the average. Hence, if the newest value is more than the oldest value, an upward trend will be reflected. Likewise, a downward trend will be shown for the opposite. Short term moving averages (20 - 50 days) are generally used for short-term trading, with longer periods used for more long-term investments. Combinations of these time-frames may be used to either confirm the direction of the trend, or indicate possible times to buy or sell when they cross over each other.
From this, it can be seen that the moving average reflects, but always lags behind the trend. This method, although proven, is rather conservative and re-active to the market trends. It does not give you the upper hand when it comes to determining sudden reversals. Attempts have been made by analysts to create a more responsive moving average, by adding more weight to the most recent values. This method is known as Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The downside of this method is that, during periods of market consolidations, the graph tends to move upwards and downwards, creating a fair amount of confusion.
A lengthy study of trend breaks and moving averages will reveal that, especially for the short-term trader, it is not a reliable and responsive enough tool to use.
So where do we look? What tools are reliable and responsive? The answer lies in your own planetary, day-to-day transits. When your transits are good, you will generally make good decisions, and when they are bad, you will generally make detrimental decisions. The trick is to learn how to use your accelerator. Speed up, be more adventurous when the planets are working for you, and slow down, preferably stop trading, when they are against you. To do this, you do not need to know the first thing about astrology, or even where the planets currently are or what aspects they are forming. Simply download the 'Lucky Days' program and let your computer tell you when these times are. It offers you a double-edged advantage. Not only will you generally save money during the unfavourable times, but you will generally make money during the fortunate times. If this seems too much to believe, simply use the program to look at trades made during your past. You will soon realise that it was indeed the planets acting on you during both the successful and unsuccessful periods.